Strategic Change Management KPMG Company

Executive Summary Strategic Change Management has become a strategic role of the management. Various business organizations have come to appreciate the need for change and have designed various methods and approaches of managing change. KPMG is one such organization. It has downed on the management that the market competition requires one to embrace change and ensure that it is creative in order to be in a position to manage market competition.Advertising We will write a custom case study sample on Strategic Change Management KPMG Company specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More The firm has brought in all the stakeholders into one community and each given its role to play in the process of change management and implementation strategies. The model that this firm would use in implementing change is Kurt Lewin Model of unfreeze, change and then freeze. Value based organization is the approach to monitor the implementation of change. The st rategies must be implemented within appropriate time to yield good results. Introduction Change is one of the most important factors that an organization must take into consideration when drawing their strategic goals and objectives. Daft (2009, p. 37) simply says that Change is constant. This statement is intriguing yet it is the best definition of change from a philosophical point of view. Change and constant are two extremes under a normal dictionary definition. However, from an analytical perspective, change is constant. This scholar argues that change brings nothing new. It only enhances what is already in existence. McCarthy and Eastman (2010, p. 23) say, â€Å"The overarching purpose of change management is to accelerate the speed at which people move successfully through the change process so that anticipated benefits are achieved faster.† As such, change should not be viewed as a shift from what is the norm. The only issue is that it brings new methodologies of handi ng the daily activities. In his book, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning, Henry Mintzberg (1994), the former leader of the Strategic Management Society, reprimanded himself and others for their sightless adherence to the strategic forecast practice. His disputation rests with the exploration of the authoritative, scientific explanation to the future. He demonstrates how planning can asphyxiate obligation, constrict an organization’s dream, make change unfeasible, and lead to the politicization of an organization. His point is based on the principle that â€Å"†¦ analysis is not synthesis [and therefore], strategic planning is not strategy formulation† (p. 321). According to this scholar, many managers would agree that change is one of the defining external factors that have huge impact on the organization. The management is always faced with various factors that would demand change in the organization.Advertising Looking for case study on business econo mics? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More As a starting point, Griffin (2000) classifies the word management as: â€Å"A set of activities (including planning and decision-making, organizing, leading, and controlling) directed at an organization’s resources (human, financial, physical, and informational) with the aim of achieving organizational goals in an efficient and effective manner† (p. 6). In the definition, several key concepts are used. Foremost, it is comprehended that management applies â€Å"uniformly to public, private, nonprofit, and religious organizations.† Murphy (2002) was of the view that â€Å"†¦ management is an organizational phenomenon and not exclusive to the world of profit organizations† (p. 7). KPMG is one of the leading consulting firms in the world. This American firm has grown and it currently covers several countries in North and South America, Asia, Europe and Africa. The recent entry into Africa, which is considered as the emerging markets, and some parts of Asia, was motivated by the increasing need for consulting firms as many of the businesses in these regions required guidance in a market that has increasingly gotten competitive. Change is one of the major reasons that are making firms in the corporate world seek guidance. KPMG as a firm has change as one of the factors it has to deal with in order to ensure that it remains relevant in this industry. It must be in a position to demonstrate to the corporate world that it is the master of what it teaches. Strategic change management to KPMG is not just important to demonstrate to others its prowess, but also to help it beat the market competition and increase its market share both at home and international markets. The need for strategic change management at KPMG has been fanned by the unpredictability of the market. The market is so unpredictably and change is the agent for this. Because of this, the management of KPMG has come to realize that it may not be in a position to survive in this market if it fails to adopt changes that are brought about by the environmental forces. Stakeholders of KPMG who are Involved in Change Management DeAnne, Gary, Hyde, and Tipping, (2004, p. 1) note, â€Å"Any transformation of significance will create people issues.† KPMG is an American firm that was a culmination of a merger of different consulting firms in 1987. These firms merged upon the realization of the fact that they had a common goal, which could best be achieved by coming together as a unit. Stakeholders of this firm are the agents of change.Advertising We will write a custom case study sample on Strategic Change Management KPMG Company specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More Their positions in the firm would define their role in the strategic change management within this firm. In a given firm such as KPMG, there are always three categories of people when it comes to change management. The first category is the initiators of change. These individuals would come up with creative ideas of how to approach some issues within the firm that would result in change. The second group is the implementers of change. They take instruction on the change strategies as defined by the initiators. This scholar defines the last group in as â€Å"the recipients of change.† This group has no role in the initiation or implementation of change. However, they feel the effect of change, either positively or negatively depending on the prevailing circumstances. KPMG has all the three categories of people among its stakeholders. The stakeholders of this firm in the above-mentioned groups can be analyzed as followers. Initiators of Change These people are the agents of change. They come up with creative ideas that can be transformed into new strategies. Some of the initiators of change at KPMG are the following categories of office holders. The Top Management The top management of KPMG has the biggest role to play in the strategic change management. Goolnik (2006, p. 10) observes that, â€Å"a clear vision should be in place at the most senior level(s) so that staff can gain understanding of why change is important and necessary.† They are the most important individuals in the firm in as far as policy generation and implementation is concerned. They are expected to understand the prevailing market forces and determine when change may be needed in the organization. They are in a better position to understand some of the changing policies in the external business environment of this firm and initiate the same within the firm. As Wilson (1992, p. 14) notes, it is not necessary that every change that a firm implements must be original to it. A firm may borrow some changes from other firms that have successfully implemented them. The top management of this firm therefore has the role of identifyin g these new strategies and initiating their implementation within the firm. They are therefore the first initiators of change. The Human Resource Management has the greatest role to play in this regard. Modern Human Resource Management (HRM) is radically different from the human relations movement in the 1920s or from the personnel management practiced decades ago (Carell, Elbert, Hatfield, 1995, p. 12). Today HRM is used to refer to the philosophy, policies, procedures, and practices related to the management of people within an organization (French, 1998). French continues by stating that: It is now generally accepted that human resources management encompasses a dynamic, organization-wide perspective that is action oriented and based on theory and research from many disciplines and is necessarily interrelated with strategic planning. More and more it is recognized that HRM must be an integral part of the strategic planning of the top executive team of the organization (p. 5).Adve rtising Looking for case study on business economics? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More Research and Development Unit This is the most important unit when it comes to creativity and innovativeness of the firm. They have the responsibility of scanning the business environment and understanding the forces that are prevailing in the market. They then would determine which of the strategies would best suite the firm in managing market competition. They are expected to come up with creative ideas of how KPMG as a consulting firm can reach out to its customers with better services in the increasingly competitive business environment. They would advise the top management accordingly on how the firm should approach strategic change management issues. General Employees General employees of KPMG are also important agents of change. KPMG has been keen to allow all the team members, irrespective of the position they hold, to contribute to factors that affect the organization. The firm recognizes their role in the normal running of this firm and therefore appreciates the need to in corporate them on strategic management plans of the firm. They can therefore make their contribution on how they feel some issue should be addressed within the firm, which may pass as a change strategy. The shift of the office from the farm to the industrial unit floor can be appreciated in the model of Toffler’s, The Third Wave (Toffler, 1991). In The Third Wave, Toffler notes if you stride back and look at the main activities of the global societies, there are three major classes or effects in the proceedings of societies. â€Å"†¦ flexible manufacturing, niche markets, the spread of part-time work, and the degasification of the media† (Toffler, 1990) Fayol’s points that â€Å"all organizations, regardless of mission or culture, are joined to one another by the universal process that is designed to focus the energy of an organization in order to accomplish a common purpose†. The Government The government plays a very important role in strategic cha nge management of any firm within the country. According to Taborda (2011, p. 78), although the government may not be seen to be playing direct roles in the process of defining the path taken by the firm, it always has a great impact on the same. A firm like KPMG cannot operate in a vacuum. It operates within a country with a government, which has its policies of how such firms should operate. These government policies change with the changing environmental factors. When the government changes its policies and such changes have effect on KPMG, then this firm would have very little but to implement the changes as specified by the government. Customers For a long time, customers have always been on the receiving end of change. They would always wait to be presented with products, some of which were not suiting their needs. However, the current marketplace is very different. Customers are more knowledgeable and more demanding. Marketing has moved from the traditional inward out approac h to outward in. firm must therefore develop products that have the capacity to meet the changing needs of customers. Customers have therefore moved from the recipients of change to initiators of the same. Implementers of Change These individuals would affect the changes as suggested by the initiators of change. As Anderson (2011, p. 16) says, in most companies, KPMG included, the initiators of change are always part of the implementers of the same. The Management McGregor (1957) in his typical book, The Human Side of Enterprise, stated: â€Å"Management is severely hampered today in its attempts to innovate with respect to the human side of enterprise by the inadequacy of conventional organization theory (p. 245). The management plays a very important role in the implementation of change within the organization. Given their role of co-coordinating and controlling, this unit has the duty of explaining change to the employees and directing them on how these change strategies should be addressed. As such, they have the responsibility of understanding the strategies before explaining them to the employees. They are also the financiers of the policies of the organization. They have a role of ensuring that proper finance is allocated to the implementation of the strategies. General Employees Sharma (2008, p. 26) says that the employees have the greatest role to play in the implementation of change strategies. They are the implementers of the firm’s strategies. They have a duty to ensure that they understand the organizational objectives. They should therefore know how to intertwine the change strategies and the general goals and objectives of the firm. They would receive the policies from the management and implement them in a manner that would generate maximum benefits to the firm’s customers and shareholders. The Recipient of Change As explained above, these individuals are neither the initiators nor implementers of change. Recipients of change may not necessarily involve those individuals that have no role in the initiation or implementation of change. According to this scholar, both the initiators and implementers of change may also pass as the recipients of the same if they are affected by this change, which is always the case. As such, all the above stakeholders may be considered as recipients of change under different contexts. The management would be the recipient of change if the same affects the general growth of the firm either positively or negatively. The employees would be recipients if the process would result in benefit increment or change of position held in the firm. Customers would definitely be the recipients through the benefits they would receive from the changed strategies of the firm. The competitors would be recipients if the change would also force them to redefine their own strategies. The government would be the recipient if the change would result in a downward or upward adjustment of the tax they r eceive from the firm. The organization as a whole would also be considered a recipient of change. This is because the organization would be subject to change in the production levels and styles and the general new product proposition it would assume in the market. The structures would also feel the effect of change. In every organization, there are various structures that are always put in place to serve various tasks, for instance, the structures put in place at the sales unit. The structures may need to be restricted to reflect new picture of the firm. Generally, the entire system would have to be restructured. The new design would have to redefine the relationship of the stakeholders in the organization and the new roles that they would play. In the implementation process however, care should be taken to avoid chaos at all the stages. Chaos can be the most destructive factor in change management. Chaos as defined in an older dictionary is â€Å"A condition of utter disorder and confusion, as the unformed primal state of the universe† (Funk and Wagnalls, 1940, p. 208). In a more recent attempt to define the concept, Coveney and Highfield term it as â€Å"Unpredictable and apparently random behavior in dynamic systems† (1995, p. 425). In the latter definition, we can see a loosening of the fixed order of the world that was embedded in the first definition. Such scientists laid the foundation as Newton who accepted a fixed-order world as the ideal of objective knowledge (Prigogine, 1996, p.2). A tenet of the Industrial Age was that some grand design of the universe that needed to be discovered existed. However, current writers and thinkers in the area of systems thinking and Chaos Theory argue that no such fixed design exists. In fact, writers like Prigogine (1996) now define chaos as â€Å"the behavior of systems in which close trajectories separate exponentially in time† (p. 201). It is therefore the roles of everyone to understand the n eed for change, and cooperate in the process of its implementation. This would ensure smooth process of implementation. Strategies Available for Change Management Government Office for the South West (2004, p. 43) states, â€Å"It is worth recalling what we are trying to achieve.† It should be clear to the team why change is important and what the same would achieve. There are giant American companies that were brought to their feet either due to the failure to adopt changes that were needed, or implemented the same, but in a wrong way. Whichever the case, the underlying fact is that change is fixed factor in any organization whose implementation should be done in a conscious manner that would make the firm remain competitive in the market. Rogers Adopters Theory provides the best available strategies that are available for change management. The categories are as follows: Innovators This strategy requires individuals who have great desires for new ideas. It requires audacity and the willingness to pay for the consequences of the change. When implemented, the firm would implement changes as soon as they are availed in the business environment. This strategy would be the best for KPMG, but the consequences may outweigh the benefits. As such, many firms shy away from it because of the possible negative consequences. The popularity of this strategy is rated at 2.5 percent. Early adopters Early adoption theory would involve embracing change early enough to be able to reap maximally from it, but after analyzing the consequences that are involved. Early adoption is good, but as innovators, a firm may not have reference to other firms which had implemented the strategy before. As such, many firms would shy away from it for the fear of the unknown. However, given the nature of KPMG, this would be the best strategy that should be employed by this firm in the process of managing change. Early majority The early majority would adopt change before the average membe rs have, but will take precautions by keenly monitoring how the innovators and early adapters were affected by the change. Although very popular, this strategy is dangerous to an innovative company like KPMG because by the time it would be implementing the change, it might be too late to be competitive in the market. Late majority Late majority are individuals who appreciate that change is necessary, but would want to evade any negative consequences of the same. They would therefore wait for others to implement change and confirm that the consequences are positive. They prefer going through the trodden path. This strategy may not work for KPMG because this industry is very dynamic and by taking this approach, it would always be several steps behind market standards. Laggards Kratschmer (2011, p. 19) describe this category of individuals as tradition keepers. They would want to maintain status quo, and because of this, they would fight any change in the organization. This may not be considered a strategy for change management, but passes as one because it seeks to fight the same. Those who hold this strategy would always be suspicious of change and all the change agents. This is the worst of the strategies of change management. Stakeholders Role in the Implementation of Change Management Strategy Sirkin, Keenan, and Jackson (2005 p. 2) say, â€Å"Managing change is tough, but part of the problem is that there is little agreement on what factors most influence transformation initiatives.† As stated above, the best strategy would be the early adoption. Various stakeholders would have different roles in this strategy. The management has the duty to understand the concept put forth in the specific change item in order to create awareness of the same among employees. The management is also responsible for funding the entire process of the implementation of the change. The employees should be flexible enough to adjust to issues concerning change management. Th ey have the responsibility of positively responding to change and ensuring that the policies of change are well taken and are appropriately implemented. The government, though may not have direct responsibility to the firm, should ensure that the business environment is kept safe. System of Involving the Stakeholders in Planning of Strategic Change A system refers to a collection of different units or subsystems, which work as a unit to accomplish a given objective. KPMG as an organization is a system made up of different stakeholders each with different duties all aimed at ensuring the firm’s strategic goals and objectives are achieved. The diagram below shows the stakeholders in this system, as well as how they are related. As shown in the above diagram, the system involves all the members of the organization in their various capacities. In this system, change would be effected from the top management, and the lower cadre employees would be doing the implementation activit ies. The system should be well coordinated in a way that no unit will clash with the other in the process of implementation of change strategies. The management of KPMG must clearly set the overall goals and objectives of the firm. This should be made known to all members of the organization. The overall objective would be to create a positive differential change to customers. The management would therefore create a system that would act as a wheel. The management (both top and mid level management) would form systems, while the junior employees would form subsystems. In this wheel, the management should transfer a desirable rotation to the employees that would make them (the employees) rotate the customers in favor of the organization. This is demonstrated in the diagram below. All members would share the new objectives, which would redefine the mission of the firm, in the firm. As seen in the case study, the last and very important part is the implementation of the shared mission . The management should identify various teams and assign them different roles that would help accomplish the objective of the organization. The management should consider developing units within the firm, with each unit having their own specific duties. The stakeholders should fit into the units, with each unit having specified role to play in the overall policy implementation process. The management can also consider having each specific stakeholder assigned his or her own role within the firm to be achieved within a specified period. Resistance to Change In many occasions, change would meet a lot of resistance from those who want to maintain status quo. They would ensure that all efforts are directed towards derailing change. Change can be resisted in a number of ways. The first type of resistance to change may involve adoption of the laggard approach to change. Such an individual would try to cling to the traditional ways of operation as much as is possible. Another approach may involve refusal to cooperate in the process of working as a system to implement change. The management can also resist change by failing to advocate for the same to the employees. They can also resist change by failing to allocate enough finance for the same. The best way to manage any form of resistance is to make every member of the organization understand the need for, and the urgency with which change is needed. The management should ensure that all stakeholders are brought on board in the process of implementing change. They should be allowed to share their views and fears about change so that the concerned authorities may address it. Plans for Implementation of Change Management Strategies Appropriate Model for Change A number of models for change that are used by various organizations, given different scenarios exist. Some of the most popular models of change include ADKAR Model for change, Stephen Covey Seven Habits Model, Kubler Ross Stages of Change and Kurt Lewin’ s Strategy of Unfreeze-Change-Refreeze. These strategies are suitable in different scenario. They have their own advantages and disadvantages that makes each most suitable in different applications. Given the scenario of KPM, the best model would be Kurt Lewin’s three staged Model of Change Management of Unfreeze, Change, and then Freeze. Unfreeze is the first stage where the firm would need to appreciate that given the current market forces, there is need for change. As such, every member of the organization prepares psychologically for a possible change. After unfreezing, the next step is change. The members, having accepted the need for change, would embrace the same and adopt new strategies brought about by change. The freezing stage, also known as refreezing, involves establishing stability after the adoption of change. Plan for the Implementation of the Model KPMG has a healthy business environment. It must choose the best strategy that would best suit all the stakehold ers in the implementation of the above-mentioned model of change. Value Based organization would be the best strategy for this firm. The first principle in this strategy is to embrace community spirit. All the stakeholders should view themselves as members of a larger community. The community should embrace open and honest communication and there should be agreement in the values of the organization. The organizational structure should be flexible to allow for adjustments in the process of implementation. Measures for the Implementation of Change Model There are measures that should be put in place to ensure that the implementation of change model is successful. The first measure is that there should be a clear procedure of monitoring change. Baekdal, Hansen, Todbjerg and Mikkelsen (2006, p. 7) say, â€Å"All models are guidelines. You should always evaluate the relevance of each individual step vs. your situation and your project. Large projects often demands detailed analysis and documentation, while small projects can be finished with much lesser work.† The concerned individuals should know the basis of objectives and goals of the organization. With this, they should assess the effect of change against what was expected. The second measure is that the implementing parties should have a clear timeline set for the achievement of various objectives. There should be regular meetings to review the success of the organization. Another measure is that the management should set short-term manageable objectives to be achieved within a given timeline. A mechanism through which objectives would be measured should exist. This way, it would be easy for the management to determine if the implementation process is effective, or if some changes might be necessary. Above all, the stakeholders should all be made to appreciate the need for change and the potential benefits that may accrue from the same. Conclusion In a business set up, the top management is always unde r a constant challenge of planning how to manage change. Strategic change management has become one of the strategic duties of a firm. It is considered strategic because it affects the entire firm from the top management to the junior most employees, and all the departments of the firm. Change management is considered as strategic because, just like strategic goals and objectives, change should be initiated by the top management of the organization and channeled to other employees of the organization. Older members of the society, especially those that have already gotten used to a certain way of doing things may not find it easy to shed their normal ways of approaching their duties. They are used to the normal methods and fear that they may not be in a position to adapt to these changes fast enough and as such would be seen as incompetent. KPMG has the duty to implement change management strategies that would help it manage market competition. Change must involve all the stakeholde rs in the organization for success to be achieved. KPMG must incorporate all its stakeholders and assign them different roles in the process of implementing change. Kurt Lewin’s three staged Model of Change Management of Unfreeze, Change, and then Freeze is the best strategy of implementing change in this organization. With a positive attitude towards change management among the stakeholders, KPMG will always be a step ahead of competition in the market. List of References Anderson, M 2011, Bottom-Line Organization Development: Implementing and Evaluating Strategic Change for Lasting Value, Elsevier, Burlington. Baekdal, T, Hansen, K, Todbjerg L Mikkelsen, H 2006, â€Å"Handle change management projects more effectively† Change Management Handbook, Vol. 1, no. 27, pp 7-57. Coveney, P Highfield, 1995, Frontiers of Complexity: The Search for Order in a Chaotic World, Fawcett Columbine, New York. Daft, R 2009, Organization Theory and Design, Cengage Learning, New York. DeAnne, A, Gary, N, Hyde, P, Tipping, A 2004, Ten Guiding Principles Of Change Management, Booz Company, New York. Fayol, H. (1949). General and Industrial Management. London: Pitman. Goolnik, G 2006, â€Å"Effective Change Management Strategies for Embedding Online Learning within Higher Education and Enabling the Effective Continuing Professional Development of its Academic Staff†, Turkish Online Journal of Distance Education-TOJDE, Vol. 7, no. 1, pp 10-78 Government Office for the South West 2004, â€Å"Resource Efficiency and Corporate Responsibility: Managing Change, How to Manage Change in an Organization†, Envirowise and Government Office for South West, Vol. 3, no. 11, pp 10-27. Griffin, R 2002, Management, Houghton Mifflin, Massachusetts. Kratschmer, P 2011, Organizational Culture is Highly Resistant to Change: Discuss, GRIN Verlag, New York. McCarthy, C Eastman, D 2010, â€Å"Change Management Strategies for an Effective EMR Implementation,† Healthc are Information and Management Systems Society, Vol. 1, no. 39, pp 20-41. McGregor, D 1985, The Human Side of Enterprise, McGraw-Hill, New York. Mintzberg, H 1994, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Management, The Free Press, New York. Murphy, R 2000, Strategic Management vs Strategic Leadership: Untying the Gordian knot. Published Proceedings, Academy of Administrative Sciences and Business Conference, Vol. 2, no. 2, pp 89-112. Prigogine, I 1996, The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos, and the New Laws of Nature, The Free Press, New York. Sharma, R 2008, Change Management, Tata McGraw-Hill Education, New Delhi. Sirkin, H Keenan, P Jackson, A 2005, â€Å"The Hard Side of Change Management†, Harvard Business Review, Vol. 3, no. 4, pp 1-18. Taborda, L 2011, Enterprise Release Management: Agile Delivery of a Strategic Change Portfolio, Artech House, New York. Toffler, A 1991, Power shift, Bantam, New York. This case study on Strategic Change Management KPMG Company was written and submitted by user Landry Barton to help you with your own studies. You are free to use it for research and reference purposes in order to write your own paper; however, you must cite it accordingly. You can donate your paper here.

Definition and Discussion of Philology

Definition and Discussion of Philology Definition Philology is the study of changes over time in a particular language or language family. (A person who conducts such studies is known as a philologist.) Now more commonly known as historical linguistics. In his book Philology: The Forgotten Origins of the Modern Humanities (2014), James Turner defines the term more broadly as the multifaceted study of texts, languages, and the phenomenon of language itself. See the observations below. EtymologyFrom the Greek, fond of learning or of words Observations Hardly any academic research was taking place into grammar in the early decades of the [twentieth] century in Britain. And the academic work which was being donethe historical study of the language, or philologywas considered to be irrelevant to children whose primary need was literacy. Philology was particularly repugnant to teachers of English literature, who found it a dry and dusty subject.(David Crystal, The Fight for English. Oxford University Press, 2006) When Philology Was King of the Sciences- Philology has fallen on hard times in the English-speaking world (much less so in continental Europe). Many college-educated Americans no longer recognize the word. Those who do often thinks it means no more than scrutiny of ancient Greek or Roman texts by a nit-picking classicist. . . .It used to be chic, dashing, and much ampler in girth. Philology reigned as king of the sciences, the pride of the first great modern universitiesthose that grew up in Germany in the eighteenth and earl ier nineteenth centuries. Philology inspired the most advanced humanistic studies in the United States and the United Kingdom in the decades before 1850 and sent its generative currents through the intellectual life of Europe and America. . . .The word philology in the nineteenth century covered three distinct modes of research: (1) textual philology (including classical and biblical studies, oriental literatures such as those in Sanskrit and Arabic, and medieval and modern European writings); (2) theories of the origin and nature of language; and (3) comparative study of the structure and historical evolution of languages and language families.(James Turner, Philology: The Forgotten Origins of the Modern Humanities. Princeton University Press, 2014)- What was happening from about 1800 on was the coming of comparative philology, best described as the Darwinian event for the humanities as a whole. Like The Origin of Species, it was powered by wider horizons and new knowledge. By the late 18th century, conscientious British colonial administrators, who had had Latin and Greek drummed into them at school, found that they needed classical Persian, and even Sanskrit, to do their jobs properly. They could not help noticing the similarities between the Eastern languages and their classical counterparts. But what did these mean, and what was the origin, not of species, but of language differentiation?Comparative philology, tracing the history and development of especially the Indo-European languages, rapidly gained immense prestige, most of all in Germany. No discipline, declared Jacob Grimm, doyen of philologists and fairy-tale collector, is haughtier, more disputatious, or more merciless to error. It was a hard science in every sense, like math or physics, with a ruthless ethic of finicky detail.(Top Shippey, For Love of the Word. The Wall Street Journal, July 5-6, 2014) Henry Wyld on Cranks and Quacks (1921)The public is extraordinarily interested in all sorts of questions connected with English Philology; in etymology, in varieties of pronunciation and grammatical usage, in the sources of the Cockney dialect, in vocabulary, in the origin of place and personal names, in the pronunciation of Chaucer and Shakespeare. You may hear these matters discussed in railway carriages and smoking-rooms; you may read long letters about them in the press, adorned sometimes with a display of curious information, collected at random, misunderstood, wrongly interpreted, and used in an absurd way to bolster up preposterous theories. No, the subject-matter of English Philology possesses a strange fascination for the man in the street, but almost everything that he thinks and says about it is incredibly and hopelessly wrong. There is no subject which attracts a larger number of cranks and quacks than English Philology. In no subject, probably, is the knowledge of the e ducated public at a lower ebb. The general ignorance concerning it is so profound that it is very difficult to persuade people that there really is a considerable mass of well-ascertained fact, and a definite body of doctrine on linguistic questions.(Henry Wyld, English Philology in English Universities: An Inaugural Lecture Delivered in the Examination Schools at Oxford University, February 21, 1921) From Philology to LinguisticsIf the nineteenth was the century in which language was discovered, the twentieth is the century in which language was enthroned. The nineteenth century took language apart in several senses: it learned how to look at language as an amalgam of sounds and hence how to study sounds; it came to understand the significance of variety in language; and it established language as a separate study, not part of history or of literature. Philology was called the nourishing parent of other studies at best.It was when the other studies, notably new ones like anthropology, began in their turn to nourish philology that linguistics emerged. The new study became unlike its origins: as the century wore on, linguistics began to put language back together again. It became interested in the way sounds amalgamate to form words and words combine into sentences; it came to understand the universals beyond the apparent variety in language; and it reintegrated language with othe r studies, notably philosophy and psychology.(W.F. Bolton, A Living Language: The History and Structure of English. Random House, 1982) Pronunciation: fi-LOL-eh-gee

Using antibiotics on dairy herds. Im going in favor of this process Research Paper

Using antibiotics on dairy herds. Im going in favor of this process - Research Paper Example About 1.3 million human clinical salmonellosis case and more than 500deaths that are associated with this salmonella may occur annually in the US alone. Therefore there is a need to use antibiotics in daily herds to control these strains most of which are drug resistant to reduce these effects from the daily products to humans. The use of antibiotics has over the time portrays success in controlling diseases and other pathogens from the daily herds to humans. A study by Church et al, (4220) concerning the treatment of intra mammary infections that were infected by minor pathogens such as Corynebacteruium boris portrayed that that though dry milk periods aided in milk production, there were no considerable effects on milk production related to udder health in short dry period and long dry period, treatment of the intramammary infections could only be treated using antibiotics. The use of antibiotics has therefe been considered and found to be the most effective methods through which bacterial infection in both daily and other herds can be approached with due to the growing resistance of some bacterial strains. These strains continually develop resistance to major drugs in the market. Hartzell et al (763) explain that the Escherichia coli 0157:H7 was first recognized as a food borne pathogen in 1982. This or ganism has spread over time and is highly virulent and can lead to debilitating and deadly disease that include hemolytic uremic syndrome (Relay et al 1983 as quoted in Hartzell et al, 763). This organism does not have an effect on cattle though it colonizes the intestinal tract of cattle. Such organisms are passed to humans though fecal matter, ground beef, raw milk, lettuce spinach and other related plants that cow dung may be used as a fertilizer. Sanderson et al (781) argues that Salmonella causes gastrointestinal illness in both livestock and humans. This is another

FUNDAMENTALS OF E-BUSINESS Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2750 words

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Introduction To Cricket In The 21st Century History Essay

Introduction To Cricket In The 21st Century History Essay When considering the extensive amount of research that has been directed toward the sporting world from a mathematical, statistical and operational research perspective, the Duckworth/Lewis method (Duckworth and Lewis, 1998, 2004) perhaps stands alone as the most significant contribution to sport. The common practice in dealing with interrupted one-day cricket matches until 1992 was to compare the run rates (the total number of runs scored divided by the number of completed overs) of the competing teams; the team with the higher run rate was declared the winner. However, this rule tended to benefit the team batting second (Team 2) at the expense of the team batting first (Team 1), leading to the common practice of inviting the other team to bat first if rain was expected. The difficulty with run rates is that targets are determined by taking the remaining overs into account, while ignoring the number of lost wickets. As is well known, batsmen tend to bat less aggressively and score fewer runs when more wickets have been taken. The first team does not have the same strategic options as the second team and, in that sense, the rule does not provide both teams with equal opportunities. Realising that this rule is biased towards the side batting second, the Australian Cricket Board introduced its most productive overs rule during the 1992/93 season. This rule calculates the target for Team 2 by taking the n highest scoring overs of Team 1 where n is the number of played overs (for example, 40 if 10 overs are lost due to rain). Ironically, this rule was now considered as tending to favour the side batting first and transparently unfair to the team batting second. To illustrate, Suppose that Team 2 requires 20 off 19 balls to win, when a short shower takes three overs away. The reset target would now be 20 off 1 ball since the three least productive overs are deduced from the original target (which we may believe were three maiden overs in this case). However, this seems to be unfair and even ironic: the second teams excellent bowling (three maiden overs) in the first innings is now turning against them; it would have been better for Team 2 in this case if Team 1 had reached the same total score without any maidens. The Duckworth/Lewis method was utilised and gained prominence during the 1999 World Cup, and since that time, it has been adopted by every major cricketing board and competition. In one-day cricket, the Duckworth/Lewis method is based on the recognition that at the beginning of a match, each side has resources available (typically 50 overs and 10 wickets). When the match is shortened, the resources of one or both teams are reduced and the two teams usually have different resources for their innings. In this case, in an attempt to be fair, a revised target for the team batting second is set. The determination of the target using resources is known as the Duckworth/Lewis method. What makes the adoption of the Duckworth/Lewis method remarkable is that the method is widely perceived by the public as a black box procedure. Generally, people do not understand how the targets are set but they do agree that the targets are sensible or at least preferable to the approach based on run rates. Although the Duckworth/Lewis (D/L) method was designed for one-day cricket, it has also been applied to Twenty20 cricket. Twenty20 is a relatively new version of limited overs cricket with only 20 overs per side. In contrast to the one-day game and first-class cricket (which can take up to five days to complete), Twenty20 matches have completion times that are comparable to other popular team sports. With the introduction of the biennial World Twenty20 tournament in 2007 and the Indian Premier League in 2008, Twenty20 cricket has gained widespread popularity. Although Twenty20 (t20) cricket is similar to one-day cricket, there exist subtle variations in the rules (e.g. fielding restrictions, limits on bowling, etc) between the two versions of cricket. The variations in the rules, and most importantly, the reduction of overs from 50 to 20 suggest that scoring patterns in t20 may differ from the one-day game. In particular, t20 is seen as a more explosive game where the ability to score 4s and 6s is more highly valued than in one-day cricket. Since the D/L method (and its associated resource table) is based on the scoring patterns in one-day cricket, it is therefore reasonable to ask whether the D-L method is appropriate for t20. With the rise of Twenty20, an investigation of the D/L method applied to t20 is timely. Up until this point in time, such an investigation might not have been possible due to the dearth of t20 match results. Now analysts have at their disposal nearly 200 international matches, and through the use of efficient estimation procedures, the question may be at least partially addressed. Also, since t20 matches have a shorter duration, to date, few matches have been interrupted and resumed according to D/L. Consequently, if there is a problem with D/L applied to t20, it may not have yet manifested itself. This was true before the third editon of the World t20 in May 2010 when a controversial outcome occurred in a game between England and the West Indies. The criticism directed at the usage and appropriateness of the method by players, commentators and fans provide sufficient motivation to adjust the table in this project. In Section 2, the construction of the Duckworth/Lewis resource table is reviewed as well as its effective inception relative to past rain rules. Some comments are provided on aspects of the table and the limitations of the method. In Section 3, an alternative Twenty20 resource table is obtained using a non-parametric approach based on Gibbs sampling. The data used in the construction of the new table consist of all international Twenty20 matches to date involving Test-playing nations as recognised by the International Cricket Council (ICC). The project concludes with a short discussion in Section 4. A heat map is provided to facilitate comparisons between the two tables. 2. For their eyes only: Evaluation of the current method and its appropriateness A condensed version of the Duckworth/Lewis resource table (Standard Edition) is shown in Table 1 (taken from the ICC Playing Handbook 2008-09). In an uninterrupted innings of one-day cricket, a team starts batting with maximum resources available, equivalent to 50 overs and zero wickets taken. Reflect now on a one-day match where Team 1 scores 276 runs at the end of its 50 overs, as a simple example of the use of the Duckworth/Lewis resource table. Before Team 2 has a chance to start their chase of Team 1s total, it rains and they only receive 30 overs for their innings. A look at the resource table shows that Team 2 has only 75.1% of their resources in hand and, consequently, their target for winning the match is set at 276(0.751)=208 runs. Contrast the Duckworth/Lewis target with the unreasonably low target of 276(30/50)=166 runs based on run rates. Table 1. Abbreviated version of the Duckworth-Lewis resource table (Standard Edition) Overs available Wickets lost 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 50 100.0 93.4 85.1 74.9 62.7 49.0 34.9 22.0 11.9 40 89.3 84.2 77.8 69.6 59.5 47.6 34.6 22.0 11.9 30 75.1 71.8 67.3 61.6 54.1 44.7 33.6 21.8 11.9 25 66.5 63.9 60.5 56.0 50.0 42.2 32.6 21.6 11.9 20 56.6 54.8 52.4 49.1 44.6 38.6 30.8 21.2 11.9 10 32.1 31.6 30.8 29.8 28.3 26.1 22.8 17.9 11.4 5 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.5 16.1 15.4 14.3 12.5 9.4 1 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 The table entries indicate the percentage of resources remaining in a match with the specified number of wickets lost and overs available. The D/L method has several advantages, which make it undoubtedly preferable to all previously used retargeting rules: completeness (it is able to handle all kinds of interruptions, even multiple interruptions and other unusual situations); the underlying mathematical model is internally consistent; tables are easily accessible/the computer programme is user-friendly; and the method compared to previous rules preserves the chance of winning by providing a relatively realistic reset target. Duckworth and Lewis (1998) only make available incomplete information relating to the creation of the resource table. Nevertheless, they do reveal that the table entries are based on the estimation of the 20 parameters Z0(w) and b(w), w=0, †¦, 9 corresponding to the function where Z(u,w) is the average total score obtained in u overs in an unlimited overs match where w wickets have been taken. While the utility of the Duckworth/Lewis table in one-day cricket cannot be questioned, a number of questions arise based on (1) and the estimates found in Table 1: Is (1) the best curve when considering that there are several parametric curves that could be fit? Is there any benefit in using a non-parametric fit to derive the table entries? The function (1) refers to unlimited overs cricket but is formed from a basis of one-day rules. Since one-day cricket is limited overs cricket, is there an advantage in taking the structure of the one-day game into account? How are the parameters estimated? If the 10 curves corresponding to w=0, †¦, 9 are fit separately, there are little data available beyond u=30 for fitting the curve with w=9. Also, the asymptotes for the curves with w=0,1,2 (see Figure 1 of Duckworth and Lewis (1998)) fall beyond the range of the data. In Table 1, the last two columns have many identical entries going down the columns. Although very few matches occur under these conditions, is it really sensible for resources to remain constant as the available overs decrease? This is a consequence of the asymptote imposed by (1). Although the D/L method maintains the margin of victory, it does not preserve the probability of victory. The resource table employed by the D/L method, and throughout its several updates, is based on detailed information from a large number of first innings scoring patterns. Therefore, the method assumes that the expected proportion of overall scoring for a particular over when a given number of wickets have been lost is the same in both innings. The validity of this assumption (that scoring patterns are the same in both innings) can be questioned. It has been found that there are a greater relative proportion of runs scored in the early and late overs of second innings, than in the first innings. The rule assumes that run-scoring accelerates right from the beginning of the innings so that runs come at a faster rate for every over completed; an exponential relationship between runs and overs is assumed. Although this captures the fact that run-scoring accelerates at the end of an innings, the moment of stabilisation somewhere after the relaxing of fielding restrictions is overlooked. 50 overs has been the standard format for a One-day International (ODI) for so long (over 20 years) that there is a period between the end of the fifteenth over and the start of the 41st where the batting side keep the scorecard ticking over through nudged and nurdled singles whilst the fielding side are perfectly happy to concede. Furthermore, no consideration is given to powerplay overs in which fielding restrictions are in place. Losing two overs during a period of fielding restrictions reduces a teams resources more than when a team loses the same couple of overs somewhere between, say, overs 25 and 30. The D/L method does not reflect the fact that the first period has a much higher run-scoring capacity than the second. The asymmetry between the equations for resetting targets impairs the quality of impartiality and may even lead to strategic options which are not equally open to both teams. When the target is large and Team 2 forsees a substantial reduction of its innings, Team 2 could take the strategic option to keep as many wickets as possible in hand, even if the scoring rate is less than required: a score of 99/1 (or 110/2, 123/3†¦) after 25 overs in the second innings against a target of 286 for 50 overs would win if no further play is possible. This distorted result is not merely due to the scaling of limited early data but also stems from an idealised assumption of how batting sides deploy their resources during an innings. The D/L method, like other (target) prediction algorithms, tries to fit historical data into a function curve, and uses this to predict future match states. Although this approach is generic and scales well, the specificity of the match is lost. For example, say in two instances a match is interrupted in the first innings with the score at 100/3 after 25 overs. The prediction (extrapolation) for both the matches will be the same. However, if one of the teams were 90/0 after 15 overs and the other team were 40/3 at the same stage, it is highly probable that the second team would have gone on to score more than the first. 3. Turn the tables: A new model for Twenty20 matches For ease of discussion, it is convenient to convert the Duckworth/Lewis resource table to the context of Twenty20; the resource table is shortened to 20 overs and the entries scaled so that an innings beginning with 20 overs and zero wickets corresponds to 100% resources. Table 2 gives the full Duckworth/Lewis resource table (Standard Edition) for Twenty20 where the entries are obtained by dividing the corresponding entry in Table 1 by 0.566 (the resources remaining in a 1-day match where 20 overs are available and zero wickets taken). Table 2. The Duckworth/Lewis resource table (Standard Edition) scaled for Twenty20 Overs available Wickets lost 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 100.0 96.8 92.6 86.7 78.8 68.2 54.4 37.5 21.3 19 96.1 93.3 89.2 83.9 76.7 66.6 53.5 37.3 21.0 18 92.2 89.6 85.9 81.1 74.2 65.0 52.7 36.9 21.0 17 88.2 85.7 82.5 77.9 71.7 63.3 51.6 36.6 21.0 16 84.1 81.8 79.0 74.7 69.1 61.3 50.4 36.2 20.8 15 79.9 77.9 75.3 71.6 66.4 59.2 49.1 35.7 20.8 14 75.4 73.7 71.4 68.0 63.4 56.9 47.7 35.2 20.8 13 71.0 69.4 67.3 64.5 60.4 54.4 46.1 34.5 20.7 12 66.4 65.0 63.3 60.6 57.1 51.9 44.3 33.6 20.5 11 61.7 60.4 59.0 56.7 53.7 49.1 42.4 32.7 20.3 10 56.7 55.8 54.4 52.7 50.0 46.1 40.3 31.6 20.1 9 51.8 51.1 49.8 48.4 46.1 42.8 37.8 30.2 19.8 8 46.6 45.9 45.1 43.8 42.0 39.4 35.2 28.6 19.3 7 41.3 40.8 40.1 39.2 37.8 35.5 32.2 26.9 18.6 6 35.9 35.5 35.0 34.3 33.2 31.4 29.0 24.6 17.8 5 30.4 30.0 29.7 29.2 28.4 27.2 25.3 22.1 16.6 4 24.6 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.3 22.4 21.2 18.9 14.8 3 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.2 18.0 17.5 16.8 15.4 12.7 2 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.0 11.7 11.0 9.7 1 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.7 The table entries indicate the percentage of resources remaining in a match with the specified number of wickets lost and overs available. To build a resource table for Twenty20 (t20), it is imperative to consider the scoring patterns specific to the shortest version of the game. Hence, consider the 141 international t20 matches involving ICC full member teams that have taken place from the first in 17 February 2005 through to 14 January 2011 (details of these matches can be accessed from ESPN Cricinfo). The shortened matches where the Duckworth/Lewis method was present have been excluded along with the t20 matches involving non-test playing nations (ICC Associates); the latter disqualification is in place to ensure matches are of a consistently high standard. Since scoring patterns in the second innings show a level of dependency to the number of runs scored by Team 1, consider first innings data only in the examination of t20 scoring patterns. Note that in their development of a simulator for one-day cricket match results, Swartz et al (2009) consider batting behaviour in the second innings. Match summary results are obtainable from ESPN Cricinfos statistics website but this study calls for ball-by-ball data. For this, Stephen Lynch (statistician) took pains to compose the associated commentary log for each match and store the data in a tabular form for easy access. For each match, define z(u,w(u)) as the runs scored from the point in the first innings where u overs remain and w(u) wickets have been taken until the conclusion of Team 1s innings. Calculate z(u,w(u)) for all values of u that occur in the first innings for each match beginning with u=20 and w(u)=w(20)=0. Next calculate the matrix T=(tuw) where tuw is the estimated percentage of resources remaining when u overs are available and w wickets have been taken. Calculate (100%) tuw by averaging z(u,w(u)) over all matches where w(u)=w and dividing by the average of z(20, 0) over all matches; the denominator is the average score by a side batting first in a t20 match. In the case of u=0, set tuw=t0w=0.0%. Table 3 displays the matrix T, an initial attempt at a resource table for t20. Note that t20,0=100% as desired. Although T is a non-parametric estimate of resources and makes no assumptions concerning the scoring patterns in t20, it is less than ideal. First, there are many table entries where there are missing data for the given situation. In addition, Table 3 does not exhibit the monotonicity expected. Logically, there is a requirement for a resource table that is non-decreasing from left to right along rows and a requirement for a resource table that is non-decreasing down columns. Also o bserve some conspicuous entries in Table 3, particularly the entry of 110.2% resources corresponding to 19 overs available and two wickets taken. This entry is clearly misleading and should be less than 100%. It arises due to the small sample size (three matches) corresponding to the given situation. For this non-parametric resource table (upcoming), the estimation procedure is robust to observations based on small sample sizes as the surrounding observations based on larger sample sizes have greater influence in the determination of the table. Therefore, there is retention of conspicuous observations such as 110.2%. This investigation of Duckworth/Lewis in Twenty20 should be viewed as one of discovery rather than an attempt to replace the Duckworth/Lewis table. Table 3. The matrix R=(r ow) of estimated resources for Twenty20 Overs available Wickets lost 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 100.0 19 93.6 83.0 110.2 18 90.4 85.8 78.3 17 86.7 80.5 82.8 53.7 16 81.7 74.5 81.9 70.7 32.8 15 76.5 71.4 71.5 65.9 59.9 14 68.3 69.1 67.6 66.2 58.4 13 63.8 68.2 62.4 62.9 59.0 24.3 12 62.1 62.3 60.6 57.3 58.8 44.1 11 60.5 56.3 57.0 53.6 61.0 39.7 10 57.6 49.6 52.1 52.8 48.1 38.6 41.0 35.2 9 54.9 52.1 43.6 49.0 44.1 33.8 35.0 29.7 8 51.0 46.4 41.7 42.2 41.2 36.7 27.5 28.7 7 48.6 45.8 38.9 35.9 39.1 34.8 24.1 25.5 6 54.0 37.9 36.6 30.3 36.2 31.3 20.9 21.4 26.7 5 44.0 32.5 25.4 28.7 29.4 23.9 17.1 14.9 4 28.2 23.4 22.5 22.2 20.9 14.3 10.6 3 20.6 19.9 16.9 17.8 15.8 12.4 7.6 2 21.2 17.6 11.9 13.4 10.6 11.0 7.2 1 8.7 5.2 7.3 6.0 5.5 6.0   The table entries indicate the percentage of resources remaining in a match with the specified number of wickets lost and overs available. Note: Missing entries correspond to match situations where data are unavailable. To impose the monotonicity constraints in the rows and columns, refer to the general problem of isotonic regression. For these purposes, consider the minimisation of with respect to the matrix Y=(yuw) where the double summation corresponds to u=1, †¦, 20 and w=0, †¦, 9, the quw are weights and the minimisation is subject to the constraints yuwgreater than or equal toyu,w+1 and yu,wgreater than or equal toyu−1,w. In addition, impose y20,0=100, y0,w=0 for w=0, †¦, 9 and yu,10=0 for u=1, †¦, 20. Although the fitting of Y is completely non-parametric, there are some arbitrary choices that have been made in the minimisation of (2). First, not only was the choice of squared error discrepancy in (2) convenient for computation, minimisation of the function F with squared error discrepancy corresponds to the method of constrained maximum likelihood estimation where the data ruw are independently normally distributed with means yuw and variances 1/quw. Second, a matrix Y: 20 10 based on overs is chosen. Alternatively, a larger matrix Y: 120 10 based on balls could have been considered. The overs formulation is preferred as it involves less missing data and leads to a less computationally intensive optimization. With a matrix Y based on overs, it is possible to interpolate on a ball-by-ball basis if required. Third, a simple choice has been made with respect to the weights quw. 1/quw is set equal to the sample variance used in the calculation of ruw divided by the sample size. The rationale is that when ruw is less variable, there is stronger belief that yuw should be close to ruw. Table 4 gives a non-parametric resource table based on the minimisation of (2). An algorithm for isotonic regression in two variables was first introduced by Dykstra and Robertson (1982). Fortran code was subsequently developed by Bril et al (1984). An R code implementation has been used that is available from the Iso package on the Cran website (www.cran.r-project.org). The programme requires 27 iterations to achieve convergence. What is unsatisfactory about Table 4 is that it suffers from the same criticism that was directed at the Duckworth-Lewis resource table. There is a considerable number of adjacent entries in Table 4 that have the same value. Again, it is not sensible for resources to remain constant as available overs decrease or wickets increase. The problem is that in the minimization of (2), various fitted ys occur on the boundaries imposed by the monotonicity constraints. Table 4 is also unsatisfactory from the point of view that it is incomplete; missing values corresp ond to match situations where data are unavailable. To address the above criticisms, it is necessary take a slightly different approach to estimation. As previously mentioned, it can been seen that (2) arises from the normal likelihood Therefore, consider a Bayesian model where the unknown parameters in (3) are the ys. A flat default prior is assigned to the ys subject to the monotonicity constraints. It follows that the posterior density takes the form (3) and that Gibbs sampling can be carried out via sampling from the full conditional distributions subject to the local constraints on yuw in the given iteration of the algorithm. Sampling from (4) is easily carried out using a normal generator and rejection sampling according to the constraints. Although in statistical terminology, (3) takes a parametric form, the approach is referred to as non-parametric since no functional relationship is imposed on the ys. Table 4. A non-parametric resource table for Twenty20 based on isotonic regression Overs available Wicket lost 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 100.0 19 93.6 85.5 85.5 18 90.4 85.5 80.8 17 86.7 80.8 80.8 64.7 16 81.7 77.4 77.4 64.7 55.9 15 76.5 71.5 71.5 64.7 55.9 14 68.8 68.8 67.6 64.7 55.9 13 66.6 66.6 62.6 62.6 55.9 38.4 12 62.2 62.2 60.6 57.3 55.9 38.4 11 60.5 56.8 56.8 54.8 54.8 38.4 10 57.6 52.1 52.1 52.1 48.1 38.4 34.1 29.3 9 54.9 52.1 46.5 46.5 44.1 36.3 34.1 29.3 8 51.0 46.4 42.0 42.0 41.2 36.3 28.6 28.6 7 48.6 45.8 38.9 37.3 37.3 34.8 25.3 25.3 6 39.7 39.7 36.6 32.8 32.8 31.3 23.0 21.4 21.4 5 39.7 32.5 28.0 28.0 28.0 23.0 17.1 15.5 4 27.9 23.4 22.5 22.2 20.9 14.3 10.7 3 20.7 19.9 17.4 17.4 15.8 12.4 7.7 2 20.7 17.6 12.5 12.5 10.8 10.8 7.2 1 8.7 6.6 6.6 6.0 5.7 5.7 The table entries indicate the percentage of resources remaining in a match with the specified number of wickets lost and overs available. Missing entries correspond to match situations where data are unavailable. In Table 5, the estimated posterior means of the ys obtained through Gibbs sampling are given, and these provide an alternative resource table for t20. The computations pose no difficulties and the estimates stabilize after 50,000 iterations. For cases of missing data, the Duckworth/Lewis table entries are used to impute the missing rs. The imputation is in the spirit of a Bayesian approach where prior information is utilised. Unlike Table 4, Table 5 is a complete table. Also, there are no longer adjacent table entries with identical values and this is due to the sampling approach. Finally, it can be stated that the methodology allows the input of expert opinion. For example, suppose that there is expert consensus that a table entry yij ought to be tied down to a particular value a. To force this table entry, all that is required is to set rij=a and assign a sufficiently small standard deviation Unfortunately we are unable to provide accessible alternative text for this. If you requi re assistance to access this image, please contact [emailprotected] or the author Table 5. A non-parametric resource table for Twenty20 based on Gibbs sampling Overs available Wickets lost 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 100.0 96.9 93.0 87.9 81.3 72.2 59.9 44.8 29.7 19 95.6 90.9 87.7 83.0 76.9 68.3 56.5 42.0 27.2 18 91.7

Abraham Lincoln and Slavery during the Civil War Essay -- Slavery Essay

Abraham Lincoln once said, â€Å"I claim not to have controlled events, but confess plainly that events have controlled me† (â€Å"Letter to Albert G. Hodges† 281 as qtd. in R.J. Norton 1). In accordance with his quote, when President Lincoln issued the unprecedented Emancipation Proclamation on January 1, 1863, Lincoln freed slaves in the Southern states, but he and his actions were being controlled by Civil War. The Civil War was fought between 1861 and 1865 between the Northern states, or the Union, and the Southern states, or the Confederacy. On September 22, 1862, in the midst of the Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln put forth a Preliminary Emancipation Proclamation (Tackach 45). The document stated that after January 1, 1863, slaves belonging to all Southern states that were still in rebellion would be free (Tackach 45). However, the Emancipation Proclamation had no immediate effect; slavery was not legally prohibited until the Thirteenth Amendment was added t o the Constitution in 1865, about three years after the Emancipation Proclamation was decreed (Tackach 9-10). If the Emancipation Proclamation did not completely abolish slavery, what was the point of the document? Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation was not actually written for the purpose of freeing any slaves. Rather, it was a war tactic to militarily weaken the South, add soldiers to the Union cause, and please abolitionist Northerners.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  From the start of the Civil War, Lincoln clarified that the goal of the war was not â€Å"`to put down slavery, but to put the flag back,’† and he refused to declare the war as a war over slavery (Brodie 155 as qtd. in Klingaman 75-76). In a letter to Horace Greeley, editor of the New York Tribune, in August 1862, Lincoln wrote: â€Å"My paramount object in this struggle is not either to save or destroy slavery. If I could save the Union without freeing [any] slave I would do it†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Selected Speeches 343 as qtd. in Tackach 44). Lincoln also refused to declare that slavery was the Civil War’s main focus because many Whites in the North and in the much-valued Border States would not agree with a war to free slaves since they believed Blacks were inferior to Whites (Wheeler 225-226). The political and military advantages of the Border States made Lincoln reluctant to proclaim the Civil War to be a war about slavery (Wheeler 225-226). Even Jefferson Davis, president of the en... ...Nation: A History of the United States. New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1999. Lincoln, Abraham. Selected Speeches and Writings. New York: Vintage Books, 1992, - as quoted in - Tackach, James. The Emancipation Proclamation: Abolishing Slavery in the South. San Diego: Lucent Books, 1999. Lincoln, Abraham. â€Å"The Emancipation Proclamation.† Washington D.C.: 1863 -as quoted in- Klingaman, William K. Abraham Lincoln and the Road to Emancipation: 1861-1865. New York: Viking, 2001. McPherson, James M. Abraham Lincoln and the Second American Revolution. New York: Oxford University Press, 1990 - as quoted in - Klingaman, William K. Abraham Lincoln and the Road to Emancipation: 1861-1865. New York: Viking, 2001. Norton, Mary Beth et al. A People and a Nation: A History of the United States. New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1999. Tackach, James. The Emancipation Proclamation: Abolishing Slavery in the South. San Diego: Lucent Books, 1999. Wheeler, William Bruce and Susan D. Becker. Discovering the American Past: A Look at the Evidence. New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1998. â€Å"Writing the Emancipation Proclamation.† N/G. History Matters. 2 March 2005 . Abraham Lincoln and Slavery during the Civil War Essay -- Slavery Essay Abraham Lincoln once said, â€Å"I claim not to have controlled events, but confess plainly that events have controlled me† (â€Å"Letter to Albert G. Hodges† 281 as qtd. in R.J. Norton 1). In accordance with his quote, when President Lincoln issued the unprecedented Emancipation Proclamation on January 1, 1863, Lincoln freed slaves in the Southern states, but he and his actions were being controlled by Civil War. The Civil War was fought between 1861 and 1865 between the Northern states, or the Union, and the Southern states, or the Confederacy. On September 22, 1862, in the midst of the Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln put forth a Preliminary Emancipation Proclamation (Tackach 45). The document stated that after January 1, 1863, slaves belonging to all Southern states that were still in rebellion would be free (Tackach 45). However, the Emancipation Proclamation had no immediate effect; slavery was not legally prohibited until the Thirteenth Amendment was added t o the Constitution in 1865, about three years after the Emancipation Proclamation was decreed (Tackach 9-10). If the Emancipation Proclamation did not completely abolish slavery, what was the point of the document? Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation was not actually written for the purpose of freeing any slaves. Rather, it was a war tactic to militarily weaken the South, add soldiers to the Union cause, and please abolitionist Northerners.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  From the start of the Civil War, Lincoln clarified that the goal of the war was not â€Å"`to put down slavery, but to put the flag back,’† and he refused to declare the war as a war over slavery (Brodie 155 as qtd. in Klingaman 75-76). In a letter to Horace Greeley, editor of the New York Tribune, in August 1862, Lincoln wrote: â€Å"My paramount object in this struggle is not either to save or destroy slavery. If I could save the Union without freeing [any] slave I would do it†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Selected Speeches 343 as qtd. in Tackach 44). Lincoln also refused to declare that slavery was the Civil War’s main focus because many Whites in the North and in the much-valued Border States would not agree with a war to free slaves since they believed Blacks were inferior to Whites (Wheeler 225-226). The political and military advantages of the Border States made Lincoln reluctant to proclaim the Civil War to be a war about slavery (Wheeler 225-226). Even Jefferson Davis, president of the en... ...Nation: A History of the United States. New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1999. Lincoln, Abraham. Selected Speeches and Writings. New York: Vintage Books, 1992, - as quoted in - Tackach, James. The Emancipation Proclamation: Abolishing Slavery in the South. San Diego: Lucent Books, 1999. Lincoln, Abraham. â€Å"The Emancipation Proclamation.† Washington D.C.: 1863 -as quoted in- Klingaman, William K. Abraham Lincoln and the Road to Emancipation: 1861-1865. New York: Viking, 2001. McPherson, James M. Abraham Lincoln and the Second American Revolution. New York: Oxford University Press, 1990 - as quoted in - Klingaman, William K. Abraham Lincoln and the Road to Emancipation: 1861-1865. New York: Viking, 2001. Norton, Mary Beth et al. A People and a Nation: A History of the United States. New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1999. Tackach, James. The Emancipation Proclamation: Abolishing Slavery in the South. San Diego: Lucent Books, 1999. Wheeler, William Bruce and Susan D. Becker. Discovering the American Past: A Look at the Evidence. New York: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1998. â€Å"Writing the Emancipation Proclamation.† N/G. History Matters. 2 March 2005 .

Effectiveness of the criminal justice system Essay

Assess the effectiveness of the criminal justice system when dealing with young offenders The criminal justice system approaches young offenders through unique policies to address the challenges of dealing with juvenile offending. They take special care when dealing with juveniles in order to stop them from repeat offending and stop any potential bad behaviour which could result in future. Juveniles have the highest tendency to rehabilitate and most adopt law-abiding lifestyles as they mature. There are several factors influencing juvenile crime including psychological and social pressures unique to juveniles, which may lead to an increase in juvenile’s risks of contact with the criminal justice system. Firstly, crime committed by persons between the ages of 15 to 19 are more likely to be processed by police more often than any other societal group, making crime rates in this age bracket significantly higher. This is due to the fact that offence rates usually peak during adolescence and will decline with maturity which happens during early adulthood. The processing of these crimes helps to embed the seed of legal knowledge in the mind of a child in hopes of shaping their future actions. In NSW the age of criminal responsibility is defined by statute as 10 years of age (Children’s (Criminal Proceedings) Act 1987 NSW). This means that a child under the age of 10 years cannot be prosecuted for a crime. The basis of this is the recognition of the immaturity and vulnerability of children and, hence, their inability to form the requisite criminal intent known as mens rea which protects a child from being tried at the level of the adult while they are not developed enough to know the difference between right and wrong. Additionally, the common law presumption of doli incapax refers to the presumption that a child is â€Å"incapable of committing a crime† between 10 and 14 years of age which protects a child who was unaware that the act was wrong. Police are entitled to require that a young person provide them with name, address and proof of identity. As with adults, police have no general power to detain a child for the purpose of questioning. A child or young person  cannot be taken to the police station unless they are under arrest. If arrested, the child’s parents or guardian must be contacted. A child cannot be questioned by police for more than two hours at any one time and is entitled to have their parent, guardian or solicitor present during questioning. If the child is younger than 16 years, parental permission must be obtained or another supporting adult to be present during questioning. There are some exceptions to this in relation to, for example, motor vehicles. If a young person is the owner of a motor vehicle, they are required by law to tell police the name and address of the driver of the vehicle if it is alleged that the driver committed a driving offence. The Children’s Court only hears proceedings for offenders under 18 years or those who are still under 21 years and committed or were charged with the crime while under the age of 18. For this reason, it is a closed court and proceedings aim to be less formal so not to intimidate the child and protect them from harsh labeling and indirect defamation by the wider community which could potentially affect their future. The names of children and young people appearing in the Children’s Court are not published; it is an offence for media outlets to do so. Under very special circumstance the court may grant permission for names to be published.The cases are usually presided over by a Magistrate and there is no jury. The primary purpose of sentencing and the entire process is to nullify the situation and come up with a plan of action to rehabilitate the offender more than punish them, for this reason, it is highly effective. The primary aim of a court when imposing a penalty on a child or young person is to rehabilitate them and give them an opportunity to rebuild their lives and hopefully not reoffend. Magistrates will often request that Juvenile Justice prepare a background report on the child or young person to assist them in the sentencing process. If a guilty plea is entered or the young person is found guilty of a crime, the following penalties may be imposed: A caution may be issued The offender may be referred to a Youth Justice Conference Depending on the offender’s ability to pay they may be fined to a maximum of  $1000 Community Service may be ordered; up to 100 hours for offenders under 16 years and up to 250 hours for those older than 16 The may be placed on a good behaviour bond Discuss factors that affect sentencing decisions, including the purposes of punishment and the role of the victim Statutory and judicial guidelines inform the exercise of judicable discretion in the area of sentencing. They aim to provide greater uniformity in sentencing matters and enhance the integrity of the process. Judicial guidelines are set by the NSW Court of Criminal Appeal. They are not binding but their aim is to structure discretion. For example, for the offence of culpable driving the court has indicated that in the normal course a custodial sentence should be imposed unless exceptional circumstances exist. In terms of statutory guidelines a number of acts inform the exercise of judicial discretion. For example, the Crimes Act 1900 NSW prescribes the maximum sentence that may be imposed for various offences. The Crimes (Sentencing Procedure) Act 1999 NSW also prescribes general guidelines in relation to sentencing. For example it identifies what might constitute a mitigating or aggravating circumstance. However, it is left to the exercise of judicial discretion as to how much weight should be given to such circumstances. The sentence that a Court imposes upon an accused is informed by differing punishment objectives. The objective of deterrence is to discourage people from offending in the future. There are two types of deterrence. Specific deterrence aims to deter an individual offender from re-offending, e.g. a short custodial sentence could be said to have a specific deterrent effect by giving the offender a â€Å"taste† of the prison system in the hope that this will discourage further criminal activity. General deterrence aims to send a message to the community that criminal behaviour is unacceptable and will be punished: for example the imposition of a custodial sentence for a particular crime, whether of short or long duration, could be argued to have a general deterrent effect. This objective is that by making an example of a particular offender, the community will take note and be more willing to  comply with the law. The aim of rehabilitation is to change the behaviour of the offender so that they will not re-offend. Accordingly, rehabilitation is primarily aimed at tackling the problem of recidivism, i.e. repeat offenders. It should be noted that in accordance with the provisions of the Young Offenders Act 1997 NSW, rehabilitation must be the primary focus of any punishment imposed upon a child aged 0 – 15 years, or a young person aged 16 – 18 years. Aggravating factors are factors which increase the offender’s criminal culpability and therefore are likely to result in the offender receiving a more severe punishment e.g. was the crime committed in company? was there gratuitous violence? was the victim a child? was that child under the care of the offender? Mitigating factors are factors which reduce the offender’s criminal culpability and are then likely to result in the offender receiving a less severe punishment, e.g. whether the offender has pleaded guilty or whether the defendant’s actions were in some way provoked by the victim. Since 1996 in NSW, victims are permitted to give a victims impact statement to the Court. This legislative change has arguably been a positive development as the statement gives victims a voice in the judicial process. It is a matter of judicial discretion as to what weight, if any, the judge will give the victim’s impact statement.

How Barometers Measure Air Pressure

How Barometers Measure Air Pressure A barometer is a widely used weather instrument that measures atmospheric pressure (also known as air pressure or barometric pressure) the weight of the air in the atmosphere. It is one of the basic sensors included in weather stations. While an array of barometer types exist, two main types are used in meteorology: the mercury barometer and the aneroid barometer. How the Classic Mercury Barometer Works The classic mercury barometer is designed as a glass tube about 3 feet high with one end open and the other end sealed. The tube is filled with mercury. This glass tube sits upside down in a container, called the reservoir, which also contains mercury. The mercury level in the glass tube falls, creating a vacuum at the top. (The first barometer of this type was devised by Italian physicist and mathematician Evangelista Torricelli in 1643.) The barometer works by balancing the weight of mercury in the glass tube against the atmospheric pressure, much like a set of scales. Atmospheric pressure is basically the weight of air in the atmosphere above the reservoir, so the level of mercury continues to change until the weight of mercury in the glass tube is exactly equal to the weight of air above the reservoir. Once the two have stopped moving and are balanced, the pressure is recorded by reading the value at the mercurys height in the vertical column. If the weight of mercury is less than the atmospheric pressure, the mercury level in the glass tube rises (high pressure). In areas of high pressure, air is sinking toward the surface of the earth more quickly than it can flow out to surrounding areas. Since the number of air molecules above the surface increases, there are more molecules to exert a force on that surface. With an increased weight of air above the reservoir, the mercury level rises to a higher level. If the weight of mercury is more than the atmospheric pressure, the mercury level falls (low pressure). In areas of low pressure, air is rising away from the surface of the earth more quickly than it can be replaced by air flowing in from surrounding areas. Since the number of air molecules above the area decreases, there are fewer molecules to exert a force on that surface. With a reduced weight of air above the reservoir, the mercury level drops to a lower level. Mercury vs. Aneroid Weve already explored how mercury barometers work. One con of using them, however, is that theyre not the safest things (after all, mercury is a highly poisonous liquid metal). Aneroid barometers are more widely used as an alternative to liquid barometers. Invented in 1884 by French scientist Lucien Vidi, the aneroid barometer resembles a compass or clock. Heres how it works: Inside of an aneroid barometer is a small flexible metal box. Since this box has had the air pumped out of it, small changes in external air pressure cause its metal to expand and contract. The expansion and contraction movements drive mechanical levers inside which move a needle. As these movements drive the needle up or down around the barometer face dial, the pressure change is easily displayed. Aneroid barometers are the kinds most commonly used in homes and small aircraft. Cell Phone Barometers Whether or not you have a barometer in your home, office, boat, or plane, chances are your iPhone, Android, or another smartphone has a built-in digital barometer! Digital barometers work like an aneroid, except the mechanical parts are replaced with a simple pressure-sensing transducer. So, why is this weather-related sensor in your phone? Many manufacturers include it to improve elevation measurements provided by your phones GPS services (since atmospheric pressure is directly related to elevation). If you happen to be a weather geek, you get the added benefit of being able to share and crowdsource air pressure data with a bunch of other smartphone users via your phones always-on internet connection and weather apps. Millibars, Inches of Mercury, and Pascals Barometric pressure can be reported in any one of the below units of measure: Inches of Mercury (inHg) - Used mainly in the United States.Millibars (mb) - Used by meteorologists.Pascals (Pa) - The SI unit of pressure, used worldwide.Atmospheres (Atm) - Air pressure at sea level at a temperature of 59 Â °F (15 Â °C) When converting between them, use this formula: 29.92 inHg 1.0 Atm 101325 Pa 1013.25 mb Edited by Tiffany Means

Literary Anaysis A Modest Proposal Essay Example

Literary Anaysis A Modest Proposal Essay Example Literary Anaysis A Modest Proposal Essay Literary Anaysis A Modest Proposal Essay In A Modest Proposal, Jonathan Swift is poking fun at over population while also offering a solution. This relates to today because although not as dramatic, we are having an over population crisis as well. To learn that times were so rough in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, it is ironic to think we have learned almost nothing. The same thing is seen on the streets today, these mothers, instead of being able to work for their honest livelihood, are forced to employ all their time in strolling to beg sustenance for their helpless infants (p. 388).It is alarming that hundreds of years have gone by and there is still no solution. Swift offers after-birth abortion satirically, but of course is shot down. Abortion today is continually debated by political figures as well as the common people just as it was in Swifts time. Swift is a genius when it comes to satire and symbolism. When you read A Modest Proposal, the first few pages are so well thought out and written that the reader almost does not know Swift is not being serious about cannibalism. It is also takes a critical eye to see that he is using the wealthy English eating the poor Irish children as a symbol for England taking over Ireland in the social and economic classes. In the world today, we are still having a population crisis. For instance, many countries in Asia are overcrowded and have to limit the number of children they can have. It is sad that so many children are starving and it is almost as if humans have learned nothing. If we could learn anything from the time period Swift was in, it should have been to not bring this problem on ourselves. Children begging and starving and stealing very well could have been prevented in the eighteenth century England and Ireland and most definitely can be prevented today. That is why I chuckle when I read Swifts proposal. He really takes care of all the issues. Children no longer starve. Women can go back to work.

Oxygen Isotope Perturbation and Its Effects on Temperature and Essay

Oxygen Isotope Perturbation and Its Effects on Temperature and Salinity in the Bay of Bengal - Essay Example Oxygen isotope ratio is a climatic proxy, an environmental variable, and it assists climatologists, including paleoclimatologists, to determine certain important climatic parameters, both existing and past, from it. (UNST 232a Mentor Section Assignment 5) Another phenomenon the isotopes are involved in is that oxygen accumulates in the calcium carbonate (CaC) of the shells of marine animals called foraminifera -"Forams". The isotope ratio in the shells depends upon on the temperature and existing isotope ratio of the water in which the animals live or lived. Over periods of time these animals die and their shells descend to the bottom of the sea and form layers that present researchers with important data from which past temperature and isotope ratios can be determined. (UNST 232a Mentor Section Assignment 5) The isotope ratio in any singular stretch of water changes over time. Water molecules made up of the lighter isotope evaporate easily leaving water molecules with the heavier one back in the seawater. When the evaporated water precipitates back into the sea there is little change in the ratio but when the water vapour precipitates on land the lighter isotope is transported to land from where it may come back to the sea via rivers and other waterways or it may remain trapped for thousands of years in the form of ice if it is precipitated as snow on places like the polar icecaps and high mountain tops. (UNST 232a Mentor Section Assignment 5) During normal times the isotope ratio in sea and ocean water is fairly constant but during glacial periods when the icecaps advance beyond normal limits the isotope ratio shifts in favour of for obvious reasons. This is in a comparative sense to normal times. (Oceanography 540, 2002) The isotope ratio is expressed as delta (lower case) with the isotope contents expressed in parts per thousand (per mille) as the following equation demonstrates. = - / x 1000 Higher negativity in indicates greater depletion. (UNST 232a Mentor Section Assignment 5) The standard in this case is of 'Standard Mean Ocean Water' or 'SMOW'. (Oceanography 540, 2002) 3. The 'Foram' Fractionation Factor The foraminifera species being investigated in this report is the planktonic

Development Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Development - Essay Example 47). Thus development in an organizational context is dependent on some key theoretical aspects like: a) Leadership The main crux of any leadership effort is to motivate people to aspire to achieve a common goal and to extend to them the skills and the attributes that could make them work collectively as a team (Rost 1993, p. 39). A leader always has the ability and the potential to gets things done by others through following the right strategy and attitude. However, such attitude ought to rely predominantly on a feeling of respect for and trust on others and must avoid as far as possible, resorting to fear and submission (Rost 1993, p. 42). Hence, respect and mutual trust are the key elements of leadership. b) Motivation It is very common to come across the reality that varied personnel constituting an organizational team tend to have diverse purposes, goals and aspirations (Mackay 2007, p. 24). Not to say that the eventual success of any project is predominantly dependant on the c ollective commitment of all the team members to the envisaged goal. This is mostly a direct function of their levels of motivation. Motivation in an organizational context is a two pronged process. ... to be bound by a common sense of purpose, thereby extending maximum cooperation to the respective group members, the organizational leadership, the diverse stakeholders associated with the organization and the organizational administration (Lantz 2007, p. 12). Teamwork is always the final outcome of good team building and effective leadership. Team building efforts comprise of varied tasks like defining goals and targets, extending and establishing leadership, management of conflicts, and motivating the respective team members (Lantz 2007). Team building also consists of processes like encouraging the interpersonal behaviour that aids effective communication and negotiating the roles ascribed to respective team members and establishing the procedures that go with them (Lantz 2007). It goes without saying that the team building efforts in an organization are certainly bolstered by the ability of a team leader to solicit the backing and support of the top management. Team building is a lso to a great extent dependant on the ability of a team leader to come out with appropriate reward systems. d) Communication Most of the experts consider communication to be the single most important factor that could make or mar the eventual success of any project (Harris 1993). The success of a project to a great extent relies on the effective communication between team members, between team members and the leadership, and between a team and the diverse stakeholders associated with a project (Harris 1993). A hassle free and open communication is the way to success and achievement. Proper communication is the one potent way to better and improve professional relationships between the varied team members. Hence, a team leader ought to learn about the varied communication aspects of the